Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
